The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme has increased slightly to 39.2 per 100,000 in week 47 compared to 35.9 in week 46. This remains above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
The estimated cases self referring to the National Pandemic Flu Service have shown a slight increase. These are primarily the result of increases in collection rates in the 1-4 and 5-14 year old age groups.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 46,000 new cases in England last week (range 23,000 to 99,000) which represents a decrease from the previous week.
This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 760,000 (with a range 360,000 to 1,580,000) since the pandemic began.
Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance®, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.